BREAKING: Fed funds futures now pricing in a 99.6% chance of a 50 bps hike for March 16th's meeting. pic.twitter.com/dA1X5sPbLZ— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) February 10, 2022
"...the real action is in the February Fed funds contract which has spiked to 13bps, suggesting 5bps of tightening relative to the effective Fed funds rate of 0.08%"— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 10, 2022
via @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/191BFL9g1K
#spx500 1hr. Similar story as per Nasdaq. The news was in the charts. Some fib confluence and the red 200 dEMA at ~$4400 for a bounce that could challenge the ATH. https://t.co/mGNzEQvVL9 pic.twitter.com/DwKkxYN56J— liquidcactus (@liquidcactus) February 10, 2022
#HYG and #SPX— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) February 10, 2022
High-yield corporate bonds correlated positively with SPX in 2021. This correlation has been broken in 2022.
In fact, investors have been aggressively dumping high-yield corporate bonds since the start of the year. Do they sense a wave of possible defaults? pic.twitter.com/krEukaw0S4
Gap FILLED: (1) pay attention to the opening slump, that is a text-book version of a bear-trap; (2) remember every tiny feature of its formation, as next time, you won't be caught by it. (3) esp. noticed some VIP bear accounts cheered for the sell-off--that is premature. Got you!
Bullard threw some shit to the party: (1) just came back--I am ALL CASH now--and saw some changes to the roadmap; (2) quick assess--the consolidation needs more time, between 4600 and 4500--for at least 2-3 TDs. (3) the bullish trend has not changed, though.
Lots of chatter about a potential surprise rate increase.— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) February 10, 2022
Per the Bloomberg database of FOMC actions back to 1997, the only "surprise" or "unexpected" tightening was in February 2000.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reactions maybe not what one would expect. pic.twitter.com/eXOjrlFzcO
The same week CPI hits 7.5% hurting the poor/middle class the Fed's balance sheet under the leadership of Jerome Powell makes a new record all time high of $8.878 trillion continuing to inject liquidity into an inflationary environment.@ewarren @BernieSanders @LeaderMcConnell pic.twitter.com/YxbPtZXOOM— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) February 10, 2022
This is simply stunning: 2-yr yld +26 bps in a single day. pic.twitter.com/kbNqhIkcbi— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) February 10, 2022
Stock selloff led by defensive/growth mix of REITs, Tech & Utilities; Materials relative winner but still fell (remains in middle of pack YTD); Energy’s lead not yet threatened, but Financials lead thus far in February…R2 Growth continues to lag YTD but is leading in February pic.twitter.com/K8ae49kYaZ— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 10, 2022