That right tail matters.— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 17, 2022
The probability distribution for Fed Funds in Dec 2022 has a mean of 6.1 hikes today (orange) against 6.7 hikes one week ago (blue).
Macro land now cares more about the right tail, though.
Probability of >7 hikes:
1 week ago: 30% (!)
Today: 16% pic.twitter.com/tljoJ34hft
U.S. investment-grade bonds have lost 5.9% so far this year, set for the worst quarterly loss since Q3 2008. The declines have been driven by rising rates, but also stem from widening credit spreads, which are now the highest since November 2020. pic.twitter.com/oC8jeRcVzq— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) February 17, 2022
Bernanke, 2010: I think we would like to bring the balance sheet back to something...under a trillion dollars...— Rudy Havenstein, catching a bid. (@RudyHavenstein) February 17, 2022
Paul. A trillion dollars?
Bernanke. Or less, yes.https://t.co/n2ljLR6sbJhttps://t.co/96kNh1IEXw pic.twitter.com/sVUzogGtrd
Seasonality plays a big role in the current whipsaws market. Late February to Mid-March has been the lowest point of the year for the past 30 some years, if you use a seasonality chart as a reference.
While S&P options flow is pretty neutral - the QQQ flow is quite negative. Traders buying puts.— SpotGamma (@spotgamma) February 17, 2022
This add's negative deltas on top of a negative gamma position. pic.twitter.com/FazER9FTIf
Dow Jones update:— The Great Martis (@great_martis) February 17, 2022
Brutality cumming. pic.twitter.com/UIdWkECkwr
This is one of the most underappreciated stats at the moment: Some 1.543 million homes are currently under construction (single- and multi-family units), the most since 1973 pic.twitter.com/B4azP45ogw— Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) February 17, 2022