The reason downside in EUR/$ is so compelling is because market positioning is very long Euro (blue). Markets are wrongly betting the ECB is spooked by high inflation, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine made that story obsolete a week ago. Lots more EUR/$ downside is coming... pic.twitter.com/elAoyFj7vh— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) March 4, 2022
Now that it is March, worth noting that the worst is over seasonally. No tool is fail-proof (or close) but $SPX tracked its seasonality perfect for a year & huge test now. IF it tracks - no major new lows should be made from here & bulls in control from roughly midmonth until May https://t.co/kb3zJ5L0F4— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) March 4, 2022
Metals Traders Hit With "Hundreds Of Millions" In Erroneous Margin Calls https://t.co/v9aFsnYvS4— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2022
You're telling me we have treasury yields rising rapidly while corporate spreads (financing costs above treasury curve) continue to widen, while commodities rip to new highs, damaging consumer spending & corporate margins in a historically over-indebted economy?— Dylan LeClair 🟠 (@DylanLeClair_) March 4, 2022
Pretty much. pic.twitter.com/x33lgUlQTA
Trendline Rejection & Lower Low: (1) every time when SPX was rejected by the Blue Trend Line, it set up a lower low. (2) this time will be no different--4114 will be broken to the downward in a week's time, most likely by 3/11. (3) if you have short position, HOLD. I hold SPXS.
Typical W-4: (1) the purpose of w-4, in a bearish trend, is to make sure the late bears don't have a good entry to short, and the trapped bulls don't have good exit--that is what happened today. (2) Mon will resolve this tangled moves, hitting (see BAMBOO SCROLL) late afternoon.
In 2020, wheat prices were the cheapest versus gold since the mid-1700s. Ukraine conflict is obviously changing that ratio bigly. The peak for this ratio was not due to arrive until 2022-24, if the 42-44 year cycle was going to work as it has for centuries. There's still time. pic.twitter.com/4qiN06vBRs— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) March 4, 2022
Remember all these 2022 outlook telling you European equities are going to massively outperform?— Alf (@MacroAlf) March 4, 2022
Time for a refresher: Wall Street analyst consensus = ZERO predictive power on the subsequent 12 months realized returns. pic.twitter.com/3TrdF5bixM
It's odd for oil prices and US Treasury yields to be inversely correlated. Yet that's exactly what's happened in the past few weeks. As WTI crude breaches $115 a barrel, 10-year yields have fallen to the lowest in more than a month pic.twitter.com/eJAThx45PQ— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 4, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine took markets COMPLETELY by surprise. Long Ruble positioning in global FX markets was near all-time highs & as of this Tuesday had only pulled back a little bit (red). There is still a lot of wood to chop on Russia's Ruble. Lots more weakness coming... pic.twitter.com/A6oTrc0Vfo— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) March 4, 2022